Earthquakes precursors space monitoring

based on "chemical potential" method

K.A.Boyarchuk, A.V.Karelin, A.V.Nadolsky

VNIIEM, Russia

The article deals with physical justification of earthquake monitoring method based on computerized data of meteorological observations (humidity and temperature). It was shown a significant fluctuation of correction of chemical potential of water vapor in atmosphere several days prior to an earthquake. The present method is proposed for using within space grouping of satellites equipped with devices of temperature-humidity sounding of atmosphere for global monitoring of earthquakes precursors. A set of instruments required for monitoring can include: IR-radiometer and module of temperature-humidity sounding of atmosphere - UHF radiometer (MTVZA-GIa) of satellite "Meteor-M" No.1.

The forecast of place, time and magnitude of disastrous earthquakes are still actual and unsolved problem. Several thousands of relatively powerful earthquakes of н>4 magnitude take place every year. They occur mainly in seismically dangerous regions spreading for thousands of kilometers in different directions of tectonic faults along the Earth surface. In this situation the global monitoring of precursors of earthquakes can be provided by space methods. The main physical effects on which the space methods are traditionally based are considered early. However, for this aim specialized spacecraft are required to be created. That is why the organization of monitoring by means of orbital satellite grouping with application of already existing equipment based on new methods is economically expedient.

A sudden fall of humidity before earthquakes was discovered in series of observations. It is well known that emanations of radon gas from Earth's crust during preparation of earthquakes in seismically dangerous regions are observed. Ionizing the surface air the radioactive radon gas produces a great number of charge centers of condensation with help of which it can influence on moisture content of the atmosphere. A solar irradiation effect should be taken into account as well.

This article deals with physical effects based on condensation of molecules of water vapor in atmosphere as precursors of earthquakes. A significant number of treatises are dedicated to this process of condensation. Besides, the authors of all treatises draw such physical magnitudes as saturation coefficients of environment (relation of fractional pressure of water vapor to saturated vapor pressure, which is always more than one) and accommodation of molecules of water to condensation centers (adhesion efficiency is always less than one) for qualitative and quantitative description of condensation process. However, there is no always saturation in atmosphere if condensation is available, but accommodation coefficients, according to all authors' opinion, can be achieved only in experiments with regard to each concrete case of condensation process. The way out from this situation can be found if we pass to a molecular-kinetic level to describe this process.

Analysis concerning dynamics of correction of water vapor chemical potential in atmosphere before an earthquake demonstrates, that the absolute value of maximum jump of correction can assume different values for different cases. That is why our further efforts must be concentrated on establishing connection of absolute value of correction of chemical potential with magnitude, depth and coordinates of forthcoming earthquake.

The preliminary analysis shows, that significant dispersion of absolute values of maximal correction of chemical potential (at ground measurements) can be conditioned by a height of weather station above the sea level, i.e. additional influence of hard space radiation, concrete meteorological conditions (occurrence of precipitations, wind), periodicity of seismic impacts and geography of the snap.

We should remark, that the space-based assets designed to monitor humidity do not have such unsatisfactory features. Thus, after well-grounded statistic justification, the proposed method can be effectively applied for global monitoring of earthquake precursors with sufficient exact indication of epicenter locality and terms of cataclysm not only in the ground meteorological stations network, but also within the space grouping of satellites of "Meteor-M" class equipped with MTVZA-GIa devices (module for temperature-humidity sounding of atmosphere - UHF radiometer).