On space monitoring
of tropical hurricane К.А.Boyarchuk, А.V.Каrelin VNIIEM For the first time a fundamental equation, which does not contain
physically proofless parameters, for tangential constituent of velocity of
tropical hurricanes, whirlwinds and tornados, has been received on base of
developed molecular-kinetic theory of condensation in atmosphere. The dynamics
of development and life of tropical hurricanes in case of atmospheric
ionization with radioactive radon gas in seismically active regions of the
ocean or drop-out of charged particles from the earth radiation belt to troposphere
were considered and researched. The equation enabled to demonstrate dynamics of
development of usual hurricane in case of thunderstorm electromagnetic activity
of atmosphere. A possibility of estimation of development of tropical
hurricanes based on space monitoring of temperature, humidity and ionization
speed was shown as well. Tropical hurricanes and cyclones (TC) are the most
menacing manifestations of natural cataclysms. The energy of wind containing in
powerful TC can exceed 1018 joules, which impact force is near 250
thermonuclear warheads of 1 Mt TNT power. A clear notion on this event
reinforced with effective methods of modeling is necessary for protection of
population of near-shore areas in tropical regions of the Earth. The comparison of seismic
activity zones with regions of origin and expansion of powerful tropical
hurricanes gives grounds to see a connection between these phenomena. This
connection is conditioned by emission of radioactive radon gas the day before
the earthquake as a result of the stress in the block crust, acceleration of
ionization and, as a consequence, increase of concentration of charge centers
of condensation in the troposphere. Furthermore, our notion on important role
of charge centers of condensation coincides with known conclusion about that the
development of hurricanes is provoked by a solar activity and connected with
the earth radiation belt and conditioned by influence of radioactive particles
drop-out from the radiation belt along the geomagnetic equator during
geomagnetic storms generated by coronal massive emissions. The outputs of this
work are based on instrumental measurements of AMS apparatus and indications of
areas of drop-outs exactly coincided with hurricanes origin areas. The further consideration is
based on a developed by us molecular kinetic theory on condensationand method
for calculation of intensity (specific speed) of tropical hurricanes used
earlier by Schuleikin V.V. The essence of the method lies in that the power of
rotation of tropical hurricane is appeared in the form of diversity of
conversed into progressive rotation of atmospheric air, power of condensation
heat emission and loss of power due to friction of air current against water
surface. The efficiency coefficient of transformation of warmth into motion of
air in the certain direction let us accept equal to a relation of accelerating
pressure difference to full pressure of atmosphere on the ocean surface Dp/p, that
corresponds to G.S.Golitsin's work. As
for reactions with participation of only neutral molecules the dependence of
probability of disassociation for condensation nucleus of 10- The obtained equation is new
one, and the difference of this equation from past ones is that all the
coefficients therein are clear from the physics point of view and are not the
result of approximation of observation results (except for k friction
coefficient), as well as it differs in availability of the multiplier of the
desired tropical hurricane specific velocity in the first member. Whence it
follows a principal impossibility of initiation of tropical hurricane at dead
calm conditions. Some initial velocity of wind or no uniformity of underlying
surface is required to provide it. Apparently, it is one of causes that
tropical hurricanes are launched in vicinities of The leading role in tropical
hurricanes process launching is acted by quantity of condensation centers,
especially charged, evaporation of water molecules from surface of which is
very obstructed. Concentration of neutral centers of condensation was taken
equal to Nn=103
сm3. It is necessary
to remark, that in usual conditions the concentration of Aitken nuclear fraction
(radius of particle is within 10-7 -10-5cm) can achieve
105сm-3, however, the
value of the sea component is significantly lower. Meanwhile, the concentration
of middle and heavy ions can substantially exceed value 104 сm-3. Results of
computations Results of
calculations of tropical hurricane specific velocity for different control
parameters (ionization rate, initial velocity, ambient temperature, and
relative humidity) show, that the growth of powerful tropical hurricane
(maximum speed of wind more than 60 m/s or 200 km/h) does not happen in usual
conditions at low ionization rate in atmosphere, regardless of initial velocity
and ambient temperature even at high relative air humidity. However, even at
not big rise of maximum speed of ionization of up to f1>50 сm-3×s-1
value (approximately exceeding the usual value in order of magnitude) a
powerful tropical hurricane develops for 3-5 days changing smoothly to a long
tropical storm. The initial velocity of air flow, which took place before the
moment of beginning of ionization velocity jump or deficiency of pressure in
the center of future hurricane plays the important role in this event. For development of powerful tropical hurricane not
only noticeable speed-up of ionization is required, but also a rise of ocean
temperature up to 27-28°С at sufficient high humidity, what coincides with
results of numerous experimental observations. The other main condition for
origin of tropical hurricane is availability of sufficient quantity of water
vapor (fuel in this heat engine). Thus, one can imagine a method for lowering
power of moving tropical hurricane when the evaporation from the ocean surface
is obstructed or relative air humidity is very lowered by preliminary
artificial ionization on its way. A volume picture of the field of maximum
speeds of tropical hurricane, which depends on ambient temperature and relative
humidity, was represented. A comparison of
numerical modeling with results of observations of specific tangential velocity
trend of real tropical hurricane "Gustav" was considered. The maximum speed of
ionization was estimated according to a rate of rise of tropical hurricane
velocity for the first 1-2 days and amounted f1=26 сm-3×s-1,
that is 5 times more than usual maximum speed of ionization above the sea. A
specific time necessary for decaying of maximum speed of ionization in via of
movement of tropical hurricane is a-1= 8 days. A
satisfactory fit of the calculation with the observation results was revealed. In
conclusion let us mark that the obtained equation serves to describe tornados,
whirlwinds and other similar phenomena, which originate near open surface water
areas. To illustrate the abovementioned, it was represented temporal dynamics
of maximal tangential velocity of overland hurricane activated by lightning
discharges in volume of The state of ocean and atmosphere (temperature,
humidity, saturation with condensation centers) can be estimated in the areas
of origin and expansion of tropical hurricane with the help of space monitoring
instruments MTVZA-GIa mounted on "Meteor-M" satellites. The speed and dynamics
of development of TC can be estimated using on-board lidars. Thus, the
perspectives of origin and development of tropical hurricane can be estimated
by using the global space monitoring systems. Kirill Alexandrovich Boyarchuk,
Dr., Prof., Deputy Director General - Designer General (VNIIEM). The scientific
interests area: remote sensing, the physics of atmosphere, forecasting of the
earthquakes, space vehicle and space constellation. Alexander Vitalyevich Karelin, Dr.; Head of laboratory (IZMIRAN).
The scientific interests area: the laser physics, physics and chemistry of
plasma, the physicist of an atmosphere. |
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